SURVIVOR: MARQUESAS

April 6th, 2002

It's official: this is the stupidest alotment of castaways in the history of Survivor.

Not a week has gone by where one (or all) of them haven't said or done something so mind-alteringly dense that it's astonishing they've been able to feed and clothe themselves.

This week we have:

Exhibit A: The Robfather proclaiming, "The first time I get an opportunity, I'm gonna get you" to John at the last Tribal Council. Way to go Rob: you were sitting on a perfect opportunity, but you toed the party line instead. Just shut up and leave.

Exhibit B: The Reward Challenge. Jeff Probst should have thrown up his hands and declared NO WINNER. Both tribes made so many ridiculous errors that neither deserved to win this. Paschal's physical shortcomings were matched by the General's inability paddle in a straight line, and Kathy's forgetting to grab the flag was matched by Rotu's unwillingness to follow the original instructions. Mindless turds all around. No victor!

Exhibit C: The "pouring sand on a fire makes it burn better" debacle. 'Nuff said.

Survivor 4 retains a 5% ratings advantage over its predecessor, and the desperation with which CBS crows that fact should tell you something.

Amongst all the ninnies, some interesting characters have emerged, and at the very least, we can all agree that we've never seen Act I quite like this before, with one tribe being so viciously decimated by the other. With the merge pending, here are the important issues for the remaining castaways:

Unlike in Survivor 3, where the Swap merely occluded tribal boundaries which in fact remained strong, the Marquesas Swap has genuinely reconfigured the entire playing field. There are now three unique alliances vying for power on Nuku Hiva:

Old Rotu
a.k.a. John's Dictatorship
John, the General, Zoe and Tammy

Alarming similarities to the Tagi Alliance: gay nudist power-hungry leader, mannish female second-in-command, young athlete, and a military man. John came into the game displaying a great deal of strength, but has since squandered any potential advantage by marshalling the troops too quickly, and drawing the lines of war.

Old Maraamu
a.k.a. the Corleones
The Robfather, Sean, and Vee

Of the three groups, this is the least stable because technically, Vee hasn't sworn any allegiance to the Robfather or Sean, and roams the hills as a dimwitted free agent. Therefore, the Robfather's position is tenuous at best, despite his ongoing bravado.

New Maraamu
a.k.a. The Family
Kathy, Neleh, Paschal

To the intense surprise of all, this is probably the strongest group of the three: they've genuinely bonded, they have a capable leader, and all three are not physical threats, making them relatively secure in the post-merger world.

Each tribe has ample ability to succeed at this point, although of course, none of them will... entirely. Decimated combinations of players from each of the three groups might go far, but I doubt that any of these configurations represent the Final Four or Three.

Old Rotu's best chance is to secure Vee's commitment and eliminate Rob and Sean immediately, before turning on New Maraamu.

Old Maraamu's best chance is to immediately ally with New Maraamu and take down John's power block.

New Maraamu's best chance is to stay low and let Old Maraamu and Old Rotu duke it out for a couple of rounds, and then begin picking off the survivors.

Because I'm in a crystal-gazing mood, here's how I think it'll go from here:

Rob will successfully grab hold of New Maraamu and eradicate John in the first vote after the merge. To his immense surprise, however, New Maraamu will take advantage of their new status and eliminate Rob shortly thereafter.

John's former alliance, without their leader, will form a decisive power block as Sean and Vee are eliminated. With the General, Zoe, Tammy, Paschal, Neleh, and Kathy remaining, attitude will win out over strategy and the omni-annoying Kathy will be oustered, followed by the vacuous Neleh. This will leave the General, Zoe, Tammy and the Judge duking it out in the Final Four.

I'd like to say that Paschal's going to win, but in this configuration, his odds are long. I think it's more likely that Tammy and Zoe will square off in the Final Two, with Zoe taking the prize.

Or something like that.... I'm sure I'll have a better theory next week.

In spite of what was just said, this is not part of a weekly series.